It was 2020 and we had all become experts in epidemiology, infectiology, microbiology. Without ever having opened a medical book, we considered ourselves sufficiently knowledgeable about science to assert our opinion. On a less dramatic note, our colleague from the account can explain to us without blinking how to better organize our HR department.
This strange effect is named after its parents, psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger, who first detailed it in 1999. They measured the logic, grammar and humor skills of several students before asking those to evaluate themselves. They also discovered that the least competent tend to overestimate their abilities, without realizing their shortcomings and without recognizing the abilities of others: the most qualified, on the other hand, underestimate their performance and consider that tasks that are easy for them are easy for everyone.
I know everything
Arrogance? Oversized ego? Contempt? No way. Underneath this apparent overconfidence lies a very simple explanation. “If we are incompetent in a field, we do not have the skills we would need to become aware of our incompetence. We cannot know that we do not know. On the contrary, the more we know, the more we doubt”, explains Esther Boissin, a researcher in cognitive psychology.
So, if one day we get lost in the forest, we will more readily think that we will get out of it if we know nothing about its twists and turns and its dangers. A forester, on the other hand, will certainly be more worried. “This poor assessment allows us to maintain our confidence,” continues the researcher. This is also Leon Festinger’s theory of cognitive dissonance reduction: if it is unbearable, we end up reassuring ourselves by convincing ourselves that we are right.” Infused science is always soothing.